Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms Using Coupled GCM Integrations
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Simulation of Interannual Variability of Tropical Storm Frequency in an Ensemble of GCM Integrations
The present study examines the simulation of the number of tropical storms produced in GCM integrations with a prescribed SST. A 9-member ensemble of 10-yr integrations (1979–88) of a T42 atmospheric model forced by observed SSTs has been produced; each ensemble member differs only in the initial atmospheric conditions. An objective procedure for tracking-model-generated tropical storms is appl...
متن کاملImpact of Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Storm Frequency, Intensity, and Location, Simulated by an Ensemble of GCM Integrations
Tropical storms simulated by a nine-member ensemble of GCM integrations forced by observed SSTs have been tracked by an objective procedure for the period 1980–88. Statistics on tropical storm frequency, intensity, and first location have been produced. Statistical tools such as the chi-square and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicate that there is significant potential predictability of interan...
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Tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season (May–June) have intensified since 1997 (ref. 1, Fig. 1a) owing to significant reductions in storm-ambient vertical wind shear (VWS) in the troposphere; these reductions have decreased on average by about 3m s from the pre-1997 epoch (1979–1997) to the recent epoch (1998–2010). The authors attribute the reduction of premonsoon VWS ...
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A number of different dust lifting parameterizations have been used to model the injection of dust from the Martian surface into the atmosphere, and the form of the resulting dust cycles and dust storms produced are found to be highly dependent on the precise form of the parameterization used, provided that it includes some threshold dependence, and particularly where radiatively active dust tr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2001
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2521:sfotsu>2.0.co;2